PAGASA says up to 4 tropical cyclones expected this September
Two to four tropical cyclones are expected to develop or enter the Philippine area of responsibility this September, according to PAGASA.
The number is based on the state weather bureau's monthly tropical cyclone forecast posted on its website.
PAGASA weather specialist Daniel Villamil, in a public weather forecast on Sept. 1, said the first possible cyclone has a recurving track and may form on PAR's northeastern boundary, which would then move westward, going to Japan.
"Mananatiling malayo 'yung bagyong ito sa ating bansa," Villamil explained. "'Yung mga bagyong ganito ang track, inaasahan natin na maliit ang tsansa na magkaroon ng direktang epekto sa ating bansa, at less likely ito na palalakasin o paiiralin 'yung ating southwest monsoon (habagat)."
The second possible one also has a recurving track and may form on PAR's southern portion, moving northwestward to Taiwan.
"Mas mataas ang tsansa nitong magkaroon ng epekto sa ating habagat," Villamil said.
The third possible cyclone, forecast to move northwestward, is seen to make landfall in extreme Northern Luzon before heading toward Hong Kong or mainland China.
The fourth possible one is also bound to make landfall in southern Luzon before heading to Vietnam, Villamil added.
PAGASA's monthly tropical cyclone forecast also showed how many cyclones are expected to hit during the "Ber" months: two to four for October, two to three for November, and one to two for December.
January and February 2026, meanwhile, may have one cyclone each at most.
Last August, five tropical cyclones formed or entered the country. They were Tropical Depression Fabian, Typhoon Gorio (Podul), Tropical Depression Huaning, Tropical Storm Isang, and Tropical Depression Jacinto.
The number was higher than PAGASA's forecast of four cyclones that month.
PAGASA has five classifications for tropical cyclones based on maximum sustained winds. These include the following:
- tropical depression – has maximum sustained winds of up to 62 kilometers per hour or less than 34 knots
- tropical storm – has a maximum wind speed of 62 to 88 kph or 34 to 47 knots.
- severe tropical storm – has a maximum wind speed of 87 to 117 kph or 48 to 63 knots
- typhoon – has a maximum wind speed of 118 to 184 kph or 64 to 99 knots
- super typhoon – has a maximum wind speed exceeding 185 kph or more than 100 knots
The higher they are, the more intense and potentially damaging the typhoon becomes.
